A [[Focusing event]], often called warning shot in AI safety circles, is a critical moment that brings a policy issue to the front. AI might not give us a warnings shot: a sufficiently intelligent agent would know not to reveal its misalignment while weak, and would therefore make a [tracherous turn](https://www.lesswrong.com/w/treacherous-turn), showing no signs before it's too late. However this seems unlikely, given the current slow(ish) take-off and AI's [[Jagged capabilities]]. A sufficiently large focusing event is likely to open a policy window, which we should be prepared to use for [[AI regulation]]. Previous focusing events in AI - AlphaGo beats Lee Sedol - ChatGPT launch - CAIS AI statement - Cambridge Analytica Likely future focusing events - AI-assisted [[CBRN]] incidenct - AI-assisted large-scale cyberattack - Large voice-cloning fraud incident - Deployed model caught attempting self-exfiltration/shutdown resistance - Large-scale labor displacement - Agent AI causing large real-world harm