We are likely to have them - A decentralized entity trains a frontier model - Theft, or state-level theft - Could just be deployed by some lab From there, [[Uncensored versions of open weights releases quickly proliferate]] Pros for releasing open weights - Accelerates [[Technical AI safety]] research - Accelerates using [[AI for good]] - Cheaper inference - Can be customized, may enable new use-cases - Reduces power concentration - May lead to a [[Focusing events for AI]] (for better or worse) Risks - Biosecurity - Cyber - NCII - Scalable spear-phishing - Disinformation Ultimately: What degree of capabilities is too dangerous to release with open weights. Depends largely on our [[Societal resilience]] and the destructive capacity of those capabilities.