If you are going from [[essays/-1 to 0|-1 to 0]] and want to build a venture-scale startup, this is a framework on how to proceed.
1. Pick a north star
Some domain, insight or value you are increasingly passionate about.
Ideally you have experience and some unfair advantage.
You can always change to a new one later.
2. Find problems that are reachable today (or in the near-future) within your north star
These are proxy markets to your north star market. They allow you to start learning and build a business.
You should spend a full day coming up with ideas. [[Quantity produces quality]].
Do the math. If you can't find a plausible near-future market where your idea could become a billion dollar company, the best outcome is probably a cash flow business.
3. Develop hypotheses
If you're going for a venture-scale idea, you need to be a worldbuilder.
A worldbuilder imagines a future world and puts in the work that gets us there.
Imagining a future world means having hypotheses - having opinions on how the world works and testing those opinions.
The validation stage is about validating hypotheses.
Trying to validate your startup idea without clear hypotheses is a great way to waste time.
Good hypotheses don't fall from trees, they usually emerge from real work: Prototyping, writing, experiments.
4. Test your hypotheses
There are two ways to test hypotheses for startup ideas: the demo and the memo.
The demo is a bottom-up approach, creating user-facing content to test with real people.
A demo can be a landing page, product video/images, working MVP or a [[Painted door test]]
The memo is a top-down written argument about the market and strategy.
Doing the research and writing it down makes it easy to spot muddled ideas. [[Why write]].
Technical founders often find the memo unnatural. Making it an intentional exercise can help.
Being a worldbuilder means validating through both demo and memo.
5. Find community
Figuring out what do next can be overwhelming and isolating. A community can make the process more enjoyable and efficient - especially if it contains other curious, intense and opinionated people.
Great examples are [South Park Commons](https://www.southparkcommons.com/) and [Nine Three Quarters](https://www.ninethreequarters.com/).
6. Commit to the process
If you keep taking on increasingly ambitious hypotheses and do real work, you will eventually build [[Conviction]]. Conviction is what gets you out of the -1 to 0 stage - with conviction you are in the 0 to 1 stage.
You have conviction if you can bet the next 5 years of your life on the idea and it fails, and you would still feel good about the bet.
![[Pasted image 20251208171619.png]]
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[^1]: South Park Commons. 2024. “How to Go from -1 to 0.” January 31. [https://blog.southparkcommons.com/how-to-go-from-minus-1-to-0/](https://blog.southparkcommons.com/how-to-go-from-minus-1-to-0/). [[HowGo12024|Annotations]]